TLDR
Madison and Wall forecasts Australian linear TV ad revenue will fall 3.5% in 2026 while digital TV grows 13.8%, leaving combined TV up just 0.4%. The broader Australian ad market is forecast to grow 5.8%, so TV is losing share even in a growth year. Foxtel and Seven have already locked in their 2027 upfront dates.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
A 13.8% digital rise that cannot cover a 3.5% linear fall
Madison and Wall's mid-2026 global forecast puts Australian digital TV ad revenue growing 13.8% in 2026, with linear TV falling 3.5% over the same period.[1] Combined television lands at plus 0.4% for the year. Digital is growing nearly four times faster than linear is shrinking, but the base sizes make that rate largely irrelevant.
A 13.8% rise on a smaller pool of digital dollars cannot fully compensate for a 3.5% fall on a much larger pool of linear revenue. Madison and Wall places Australia alongside most mature TV markets: structurally declining legacy revenue cushioned, but not replaced, by streaming and connected TV inventory.
| Segment | 2026 forecast growth | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Linear TV | -3.5% | Ongoing audience fragmentation |
| Digital TV | +13.8% | Streaming and connected TV growth |
| Combined TV | +0.4% | Net result across both segments |
TV loses ground while the broader market grows
Madison and Wall forecasts Australia's total advertising market to grow 5.8% in 2026,[1] against television's 0.4% combined gain. Money is moving into the market, and TV is collecting almost none of it. Search, social and retail media are absorbing the growth while TV defends its base.
Networks might have hoped the FIFA World Cup would provide a cyclical lift. Madison and Wall closes that door, with the report saying "The FIFA World Cup will have less of a time-shifting impact on ad revenues because unfavorable time zones limit its value to the advertising market."[1] Games played in unfriendly hours for Australian audiences reduce the premium audiences, and the premium rates, that make a World Cup worth pitching at an upfront.
Madison and Wall also flagged Australia's regulatory environment as a live variable for media buyers planning 2027 spend. "Local regulation is a bigger differentiator than in many markets, including the under-16 social media ban and the Digital Competition Bill,"[1] the report said. Whether the under-16 ban shifts any meaningful budget back toward television is genuinely uncertain; the enforcement machinery is still being built.
Walking into the 2027 upfronts with 0.4%
Foxtel Media held its 2027 Upfront on 3 September 2026 at The Cutaway, Barangaroo, in Sydney.[2] Seven's upfronts follow in the week of 11 November, also in Sydney.[3] Both events were locked in before Madison and Wall published their forecast, so buyers will walk in carrying a third-party number showing combined TV growth of 0.4%.
Networks are not selling a share of industry growth in those rooms; they are negotiating over who absorbs the gap between a television market at 0.4% and a total ad market at 5.8%. For buyers with fixed overall budgets, every dollar that stays in linear is a dollar not going somewhere growing faster. Holding rate card becomes the central objective for networks, rather than capturing incremental spend.
Digital TV's 13.8% growth gives broadcasters a credible story for their streaming and broadcaster video on demand (BVOD) inventory, and that story will dominate both presentations. The harder question, how to price linear airtime against a minus 3.5% structural trend, is the one buyers will be pushing on when the rooms fill in September and November 2026.
SOURCES & CITATIONS
FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS
What is the forecast for Australian TV advertising in 2026?
How does TV compare to the overall Australian ad market?
Will the FIFA World Cup help Australian TV networks in 2026?
When are the 2027 TV upfronts in Australia?
Xaviery Malinao writes for Prompt the Market on how brands and agencies are adapting to answer engines, drawing on Bushnote's work with clients across search, AI search and content.
