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Ritson tips Australian retail media to shrink to three networks

Growth at Cartology and Coles 360 has dropped from roughly 30% a year to single digits, and marketing professor Mark Ritson argues the crowded field of new entrants, 7-Eleven, CommBank, Bunnings, Virgin Australia, will not survive the squeeze.

6 min read
Geometric illustration of a flock of small shopping trolleys funnelling into three large ones while a tiny figure counts them
Illustration: Prompt the Market
By Xaviery MalinaoPrompt the Market desk ·
By Xaviery Malinao · 2026-10-02

TLDR

Cartology grew 7.8% and Coles 360 grew 10% in FY26, both well below their early-year rates of roughly 30%, as at least six new retail media networks entered the Australian market. Marketing professor Mark Ritson predicts Australian buyers will consolidate to two or three networks within three years, mirroring a US market now dominated by two players holding nearly 90% of spend.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

01Cartology grew revenue 7.8% in FY26, with a stronger second-half lift of 11.3%, per Woolworths Group's ASX disclosure.
02Coles 360 reported 10% retail media income growth in FY26, down sharply from roughly 30% in earlier years.
03Ritson predicts Australian buyers will settle on two or three retail media networks within three years.
04Amazon holds roughly 78% of US retail media spend; Walmart holds about 11%, making Amazon about seven times Walmart's size.
05At least six new networks have entered Australia, including 7-Eleven, CommBank, Bunnings and Virgin Australia.

The argument for consolidation

The launch decks for Australia's newer retail media networks all carry roughly the same promise: unique audiences, closed-loop measurement, incremental sales. Mark Ritson, marketing professor and columnist, published a counter-argument on 2 October 2026. Ritson said consolidation is coming, probably faster than the launch decks suggest, and within three years Australian buyers will settle on two, maybe three networks.[1]

Ritson's argument rests on a structural observation: buyers have finite budgets, finite measurement capacity and finite appetite for fragmented reporting. When the market matures, they standardise on the networks with the largest audiences and the clearest attribution, and everything else gets rationalised out of the plan.

What the ASX filings show

Cartology, Woolworths Group's retail media business, grew revenue by 7.8% in the financial year ended 28 June 2026, according to the Woolworths Group full-year results announcement to the ASX on 26 August 2026.[2] That headline figure obscures a meaningful acceleration: second-half growth came in at 11.3%.

Coles Group filed its own numbers a day earlier, on 25 August 2026. Coles 360 reported retail media income growth of 10% for the financial year ended 28 June 2026.[3] Both figures sit well below the roughly 30% growth rates both networks posted in earlier years, a deceleration Ritson reads as the market entering its consolidation phase rather than simply having a soft year.

Ritson estimates the two networks together bill about A$1 billion annually.[1] That figure comes from his column rather than a line item in either ASX filing, and buyers should treat it accordingly.

The US comparison

The United States offers a reasonably close preview of where concentrated retail media markets end up. eMarketer projects that US advertisers will spend US$69.33 billion on retail media in 2026, a sum that exceeds traditional television advertising spend for the first time.[4] The distribution of that spending is what matters for Australia's trajectory.

Amazon captures roughly 78% of US retail media spend; Walmart captures about 11%, according to analysis by Solomon Partners published in January 2026.[5] On those figures, Amazon's retail media business is approximately seven times the size of Walmart's, and two players between them hold close to 90% of a US$69 billion market.

Ritson is also clear about what retail media does well. Ritson said retail media is brilliant at finding people who were already going to buy something.[1] That strength makes it genuinely useful for lower-funnel campaigns; it does not make every network in the market worth a line in the media plan.

What to ask before committing budget

At least six new retail media networks have entered the Australian market in recent years, including 7-Eleven, CommBank, Virgin Australia, Bunnings, David Jones and Metcash.[1] Each pitches unique reach. The practical question for any media buyer is whether that reach is genuinely unduplicated: whether the network's shoppers are people the buyer cannot already find through Cartology or Coles 360 at lower cost and complexity.

Three questions worth putting to any sub-scale network before committing budget: Can it demonstrate unique, unduplicated reach against the buyer's specific category? Does it offer closed-loop measurement that attributes sales rather than impressions? Can it show incrementality, meaning sales that would not have occurred without the campaign, not just sales that happened to occur while the campaign ran?

Cartology's 11.3% second-half growth rate suggests the larger networks still have room to expand their inventory and their pitch. Buyers who commit material budget to sub-scale networks now may find themselves renegotiating those contracts after consolidation has already reduced the field, with Cartology and Coles 360's combined A$1 billion billing base as the likely starting point for whatever two or three networks remain standing by 2029.[1]

This article contains analysis and commentary on market conditions. It does not constitute financial, investment, or professional advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult a qualified adviser before making financial decisions.

FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS

Why are Cartology and Coles 360 growing more slowly now?
Both networks built their early growth on the rapid expansion of digital advertising inventory and the integration of loyalty data. That initial build-out phase is largely complete, so growth now depends on winning share from other media channels and deepening relationships with existing advertisers rather than opening new categories of inventory.
Does slower growth mean the two dominant networks are in trouble?
Not necessarily. Cartology's second-half growth of 11.3% was meaningfully faster than its full-year result of 7.8%, which points to acceleration rather than decline. Slower growth at a larger revenue base is a normal feature of market maturity, not a distress indicator.
What happened in the US retail media market that is relevant here?
US retail media is projected to reach US$69.33 billion in 2026, overtaking traditional television. Amazon holds roughly 78% of that spend and Walmart holds about 11%, meaning two players dominate nearly 90% of the market. Mark Ritson argues Australia is heading toward a similar two-player structure, just on a different timeline.
Should media buyers cut sub-scale retail media networks from their plans now?
Not automatically, but with scrutiny. A sub-scale network that can prove genuinely unduplicated reach in a specific category may still earn a place in a plan. The risk Ritson identifies is committing budget to networks that cannot demonstrate unique reach or closed-loop measurement before consolidation removes the weaker players.

Xaviery Malinao

Xaviery Malinao writes for Prompt the Market on how brands and agencies are adapting to answer engines, drawing on Bushnote's work with clients across search, AI search and content.

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