TLDR
Netflix has cut its 2026 advertising revenue forecast from roughly US$3 billion to US$2.7 billion, blaming slower ad product rollout. New Zealand joins the March 2027 ad-tier expansion as a newly confirmed market. Australian connected TV buyers face a supplier missing its own targets in an already crowded market.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
The 2026 advertising forecast
Netflix told investors on 20 October that it now expects advertising revenue of approximately US$2.7 billion for 2026, down from a prior target of around US$3 billion, a cut of roughly US$300 million, or about 10% of the earlier figure.[1] The company blamed the revision on slightly slower-than-expected rollout of some ad product capabilities.
The rest of the quarter was stronger. Revenue grew 12% year on year to US$12.9 billion, and operating margin expanded to 34.6% from 28.2% in the same quarter a year earlier.[1]
For the fourth quarter, Netflix guided earnings per share to 67 US cents, below the 73 cents analysts expected, and it cut about 1,000 jobs, roughly 6% of staff, the week before the result.[3] Shares fell about 4% after hours.[4] Full-year 2026 revenue guidance sits at US$51.1 billion, implying 13% growth.
New Zealand and the March 2027 expansion
Netflix confirmed New Zealand as a new addition to its March 2027 ad-tier rollout, joining nine EMEA (Europe, Middle East and Africa) countries plus Colombia and Peru in the first wave of a 15-market 2027 expansion.[1] The shareholder letter flagged New Zealand explicitly as new since the previous public announcement.
A Netflix Ads post by Nicolle Pangis, vice president of UCAN advertising, published the same day, listed 11 March 2027 countries: Austria, Belgium, Colombia, Denmark, Ireland, the Netherlands, Norway, Peru, Poland, Sweden and Switzerland.[2] New Zealand was not among them, which makes the shareholder letter the first place Netflix has confirmed it.
On the product side, Netflix extended programmatic access in Q3 through globally available connected TV (CTV) marketplace deals, and added new measurement tools covering reach, frequency and attribution inside demand-side platforms (DSPs), the software agencies use to buy advertising across multiple publishers.[1] New partnerships with MercadoLibre in Latin America and AdForm in EMEA also landed in the quarter.[2]
What Australian buyers face
Australia is not in the March 2027 tranche, because Australians can already choose Netflix's Standard with ads plan.[5] For local agencies, the change is that they are now buying from a platform that has cut its own ad forecast, while New Zealand gets the plan from March 2027.
Netflix's Asia-Pacific revenue reached US$1,537 million in Q3, up 12% year on year and 15% on a currency-neutral basis. Currency moves held back the reported figure.[1]
The letter also gives buyers something to test. Netflix says it is adding in-DSP measurement of reach, frequency and attribution, and the reason it gave for the forecast cut is that some ad product capabilities arrived later than planned. Australian agencies weighing Netflix against local streamers' ad inventory in 2027 plans can ask which of those capabilities are now live here.
SOURCES & CITATIONS
FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS
By how much did Netflix cut its 2026 advertising revenue forecast?
When does Netflix's ad tier launch in New Zealand?
What does the forecast cut mean for Australian agencies buying Netflix CTV inventory?
Xaviery Malinao writes for Prompt the Market on how brands and agencies are adapting to answer engines, drawing on Bushnote's work with clients across search, AI search and content.
Important
This is general information only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.
