TLDR
IAB raised its 2026 US ad spend growth forecast to 12.3%, up from 9.5% in January, drawing on a survey of more than 200 brand and agency decision-makers. Madison & Wall put Australian combined TV growth at just 0.4% for the same year.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
What IAB revised and why
IAB put 2026 US ad spend growth at 9.5% in January. By 10 September it had lifted that number to 12.3%, a revision of 2.8 percentage points in nine months.[1] Mid-year revisions of that size reflect money that has already landed, not just intentions.
IAB CEO David Cohen said the first half was strong, major live events delivered, and advertisers have increasingly powerful tools in their arsenal to find and engage customers.[1] Live sport and tentpole programming pulled forward spend that in slower years drifts into Q4.
The forecast draws on insights from more than 200 brand and agency ad investment decision-makers, enough weight to shift planning cycles at large holding groups.[1] IAB Australia published the study locally on 16 September 2026, six days after the US release.[2]
Which channels are driving US growth
Social media is projected to grow 16.5% in 2026, the strongest forecast of any channel in the IAB study.[1] Podcast advertising follows at 8.7%, a category that barely registered in most planning decks five years ago and now sits well clear of overall market growth.[1]
IAB VP Chris Bruderle said consumers are becoming more discerning, switching brands, paying for lower-priced brands and looking at store brands.[1] When buyers are cautious, advertisers chase performance, and performance channels take the budget.
The Australian contrast
Madison & Wall's midyear global forecast, published in June 2026, put combined Australian TV ad revenue growth at just 0.4% for the full year.[3] That headline figure conceals a split that should concern any planner still anchoring budgets to linear.
Digital TV in Australia is forecast up 13.8% for 2026, while linear TV is forecast down 3.5%, a 17-percentage-point spread inside what broadcasters sell under the same category name.[3] The combined 0.4% figure is a weighted average of two very different markets.
An Australian planner benchmarking off the IAB US headline of 12.3% is comparing their market to one running at roughly 30 times the growth rate of Australian TV combined. Digital TV at 13.8% tracks close to the US social and podcast numbers. Linear TV at negative 3.5% tracks closer to a channel in structural decline, and the money in both markets is following the same logic: measurable performance over broad reach.
SOURCES & CITATIONS
FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS
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James Dore is Strategy Director at Bushnote, a leader in SEO and AEO in Australia. He writes on search, AI and the technology decisions shaping government and industry.
