TLDR
Commonwealth Bank and ANZ both moved their Reserve Bank of Australia rate-rise forecasts to the 28-29 September board meeting on Monday morning, pushing futures markets to price a 90% chance of a hike to 4.60%. ANZ retained a second hike for November, putting a potential cash rate of 4.85% on the table.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
Two banks, one morning, one call
Commonwealth Bank of Australia and ANZ both moved on the same morning, bringing forward their Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate-rise forecasts to the 28-29 September board meeting. Most analysts had pencilled the decision in for November. By the close of Monday's session, financial markets had priced in about a 90% probability of a rate rise at the 29 September meeting.[1] A market at 90% is not hedging anything.
Belinda Allen, Head of Australian Economics at Commonwealth Bank, put it plainly: "We now expect the RBA to hike the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.60% at its 28-29 September meeting."[1] Twenty-five basis points is a quarter of a percentage point, taking the official cash rate from 4.35% to 4.60%.
What ANZ added that CBA did not
Adam Boyton, Head of Australian Economics at ANZ Research, kept the bank's November hike call on the table, framing September as an addition rather than a substitution. "We also view a move in September as an addition to, rather than a replacement for, a November rate hike," Boyton said. "That revealed preference for moving in Statement on Monetary Policy meetings suggests that a decision to increase rates in September is less about timing and more about the ultimate level of rates that the RBA thinks will be necessary to bring inflation back to target in a timely fashion."[2]
ANZ's argument is that September tells you less about when the RBA wants to move and more about how far it wants to go. If November follows, the cash rate hits 4.85%, which changes the maths on every variable-rate mortgage in the country.
The session itself
The S&P/ASX 200 (Australia's benchmark share index) fell early after the bank forecasts landed, then clawed back losses as buying in healthcare and mining stocks steadied the index.[2] The day's worst performer had nothing to do with rates. Perpetual Limited was the bottom mover on the ASX 200, falling 14% intraday after rejecting a revised takeover offer from Swedish private equity group EQT.[2]
L1 Long Short Fund Limited disclosed that directors Mark Landau and Raphael Lamm stepped down effective 21 September 2026.[3] The fund gave no reason for the departures in its ASX disclosure.
One data point left before the decision
The RBA paused at 4.35% in June after a run of hikes aimed at bringing inflation back to its 2-3% target band. Monday's forecast revisions arrived less than four days before the last meaningful domestic data release the board will see before it meets. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) will release the August 2026 Labour Force Survey on Thursday 24 September at 11:30 am AEST.[4]
Weak jobs figures could give the board a reason to hold. A strong one removes the last argument for waiting. The board meets 28-29 September.
SOURCES & CITATIONS
FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS
What did CBA and ANZ change in their RBA forecasts?
What does a 90% futures probability mean?
Why does Thursday's jobs data matter so much?
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James Dore is Strategy Director at Bushnote, a leader in SEO and AEO in Australia. He writes on search, AI and the technology decisions shaping government and industry.
Important
This article contains general financial information only and does not constitute financial advice. It is not personal financial advice and does not take into account your individual circumstances, objectives or needs. Before making any financial decisions, you should consider whether the information is appropriate for your situation and seek professional financial advice if needed.
