ING, ANZ and NAB lift home loan rates before the RBA moves

By James Dore · 2026-09-17

Banks move before the RBA does

The Reserve Bank of Australia's next rate decision lands on 29 September. Three banks have not waited for it. ING Australia increased variable home loan rates for new and existing owner-occupier and investor borrowers by 25 basis points, effective 15 May 2026.^[1] ANZ and NAB have made similar pre-emptive moves ahead of the September meeting.^[1]

ING's Head of Retail Jennifer Davies said: "With cost-of-living pressures remaining high, we recognise that higher mortgage rates continue to place pressure on household budgets, and we know this will be difficult for many home loan customers."^[1] Davies said the bank encouraged customers worried about repayments to make contact early.

The RBA's cash rate already sits at 4.35 percent, the product of three 25-basis-point increases in 2026: on 3 February, 5 May, and a hold through June and August.^[2] When banks act before the central bank moves, borrowers feel it twice: once in their repayments and once in their confidence to spend.

The IMF's conditional warning

The IMF's February 2026 Article IV consultation gave the RBA qualified backing to keep tightening. The fund's staff report said that if incoming data shows stronger-than-expected private demand or tighter supply constraints, tighter policy than assumed in the November Statement may be appropriate.^[3]

The IMF also recommended that the government phase out residual cyclical discretionary fiscal support now that the economy is in recovery, to rebuild fiscal buffers and address external imbalances.^[3] The fund wants both the RBA and Canberra pulling in the same direction, tightening together rather than one offsetting the other.

Fiscal spending that stays high keeps demand elevated, which gives the RBA more reason to lift rates. The IMF's position is that the risks are asymmetric: doing less is more dangerous than doing more.

Where markets and the Fed sit

Market participants, as recorded in the RBA's May 2026 Statement on Monetary Policy, expected the cash rate to increase by around 60 basis points by the end of 2026, with around a 70 percent chance of a rise in May already priced in.^[2] That May move materialised. The 29 September decision is now the next test.

External pressure is building too. The US Federal Reserve lifted its target range by 25 basis points to 3¾, 4 percent at its 15 to 16 September meeting.^[4] When the Fed tightens, capital flows between markets shift and the RBA's room to hold steady narrows, especially when the IMF is already pushing for more.

What it means for marketing and media budgets

Higher mortgage repayments leave households with less discretionary income. Less discretionary income means softer retail sales, which compresses advertiser confidence, particularly in Q4 when Christmas campaign commitments are locked in.

The banks have already moved, so the consumer spending slowdown is already underway. Budget holders planning Q4 activity around a spending rebound should note that the RBA's own market pricing data put a further 60 basis points of tightening on the table by December 2026.^[2]

James Dore

James Dore is founder and editor of Prompt the Market and Strategy Director at Bushnote, a Sydney strategy, SEO and AI search agency. He has a background in strategy, media and financial services, and led consumer product marketing at MONEYME. He writes on AI search, answer engines, technology policy and media economics.