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# Unemployment hits 4.6%, a four-year high, days before RBA meets
- URL: https://www.promptthemarket.com/unemployment-hits-4-6-a-four-year-high-days-before-rba-meets/
- Published: 2026-09-24T13:57:39.000Z
- Updated: 2026-09-24T15:10:49.000Z
- Description: Australia's unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in August 2026, the highest rate in four years. Unemployment was last this high in August 2021.
- Author: Editor News
- Tags: Finance, #author-james-dore

![James Dore](https://storage.ghost.io/c/e4/01/e4017178-c1da-4131-80aa-35f02cb5b999/content/images/2026/09/james-dore.jpg)

By **James Dore** · 2026-09-24

TLDR

Australia's unemployment rate climbed to 4.6% in August 2026, its highest level since 2021, as more people entered the job market than found work. CBA and ANZ both forecast a rate hike on 29 September.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

01Unemployment reached 4.6% in August 2026, matching a level last seen in August 2021.

02Participation rose 0.2 percentage points to 67.1%, because more people started looking for work.

03CBA forecasts the Reserve Bank of Australia will lift the cash rate to 4.60% on 29 September.

04ANZ adds a second 25-basis-point hike in November on top of its September call.

05The RBA board meets on 28 and 29 September.

## What the ABS found

Australia's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in August 2026, the highest rate in four years.\[2\] Unemployment was last this high in August 2021.

The labour force participation rate increased by 0.2 percentage points to 67.1% in August, meaning the rise in unemployment was driven by people entering the workforce, not by employers cutting jobs.\[1\]

Sean Crick, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) head of labour statistics, said that in August a higher proportion of people who were previously not in the labour force moved to being unemployed compared to recent years.\[1\]

## What the banks expect

CBA and ANZ both expect the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to raise the cash rate from 4.35% at its meeting on 28 and 29 September.

Belinda Allen, CBA Head of Australian Economics, said the bank now expects the RBA to hike the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.60% at its 28-29 September meeting.\[3\] CBA made the forecast on the day the ABS released the August figures.

Sophia Angala, ANZ Economist, said the bank now expects the RBA to increase the cash rate by 25 basis points in September, in addition to another 25 basis point rate hike expected in November.\[4\] ANZ flagged this double-hike call on 22 September, two days before the ABS release.

## Thursday's market

The Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) fell on Thursday on a combination of Wall Street losses and a surge in the oil price. Higher oil prices raise transport and business costs, which adds to inflation.

For marketing and media budgets, a 25-basis-point rise going into the peak consumer-spending quarter lifts the cost of any debt-funded campaign activity and tends to compress household discretionary spending, the spending most brand advertising is aimed at. CBA's forecast would put the cash rate at 4.60%; ANZ's November call would push it to 4.85% before Christmas.

The RBA's Monetary Policy Board meets on 28 September.

This article contains analysis and commentary on market conditions. It does not constitute financial, investment, or professional advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult a qualified adviser before making financial decisions.

SOURCES & CITATIONS

1. [Unemployment rate rises to 4.6% in August, ABS media release](https://www.abs.gov.au/media-centre/media-releases/unemployment-rate-rises-46-august?ref=promptthemarket.com)
2. [Labour Force, Australia, ABS historical data](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/labour/employment-and-unemployment/labour-force-australia/dec-2025?ref=promptthemarket.com)
3. [RBA expected to lift interest rates next week, CBA newsroom](https://www.commbank.com.au/articles/newsroom/2026/09/rba-expected-to-lift-interest-rates-next-week.html?ref=promptthemarket.com)
4. [Consumer confidence pulls back, ANZ newsroom](https://www.anz.com.au/newsroom/media/2026/september/consumer-confidence-pulls-back/?ref=promptthemarket.com)
5. [ASX 30-day interbank futures end-of-day summary, 26 August 2026](https://www.asx.com.au/data/futures/reports/EODWebMarketSummary260826SFD.htm?ref=promptthemarket.com)

FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS

Why did unemployment rise if people weren't losing their jobs?

The participation rate rose, meaning more people entered the workforce and registered as job-seekers. When job creation doesn't keep pace with that inflow, the unemployment rate climbs even without a wave of redundancies.

What does a rate hike mean for marketing and media budgets?

A higher cash rate increases the cost of any borrowed money used to fund campaigns. It also tends to reduce household discretionary spending, which reduces the revenue that brand advertising is trying to influence.

Why are futures markets pricing no hike when CBA and ANZ are forecasting one?

Futures markets aggregate the bets of many participants; bank economists express the view of their institutions. The two can diverge significantly ahead of a meeting, and one side will be wrong. As of 26 August, the futures settlement implied the cash rate stays at 4.35%.

![James Dore](https://storage.ghost.io/c/e4/01/e4017178-c1da-4131-80aa-35f02cb5b999/content/images/2026/09/james-dore.jpg)

[James Dore](https://www.promptthemarket.com/james-dore/)

James Dore is Strategy Director at Bushnote, a leader in SEO and AEO in Australia. He writes on search, AI and the technology decisions shaping government and industry.

Important

This article contains general financial information only and does not constitute financial advice. It is not personal financial advice and has not been prepared having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before making any financial decision, you should consider whether the information is appropriate for your circumstances and seek professional financial advice if needed. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.