> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.promptthemarket.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # CBA tips RBA cash rate to hit 4.60% with November hike - URL: https://www.promptthemarket.com/cba-tips-rba-cash-rate-to-hit-4-60-with-november-hike/ - Published: 2026-09-20T22:00:00.000Z - Updated: 2026-09-21T08:08:36.000Z - Description: Commonwealth Bank (CBA) published a revised rate forecast on 21 September that separates it from every other major lender: one final Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cash rate rise in November, taking the rate to 4.60%. - Author: Editor News - Tags: Finance, #author-james-dore ![James Dore](https://storage.ghost.io/c/e4/01/e4017178-c1da-4131-80aa-35f02cb5b999/content/images/2026/09/james-dore.jpg) By **James Dore** ยท 2026-09-20 TLDR Commonwealth Bank now forecasts the Reserve Bank of Australia will lift the cash rate to 4.60% in November, its highest since 2011, with markets pricing more than an 80% chance of a move as early as 29 September. Three hikes by March 2027 would add roughly $180 a month to a $500,000 variable mortgage. KEY TAKEAWAYS 01Commonwealth Bank forecasts the RBA cash rate will peak at 4.60% in November, the highest since 2011. 02Money markets priced more than an 80% probability of a rate rise at the 29 September RBA meeting. 03Three hikes priced by March 2027 would add roughly $180 a month to a $500,000 variable mortgage. 04The ASX was set to open down approximately 0.7% on 21 September despite gains on Wall Street. 05The IMF, the Fed and Governor Bullock all backed further tightening within five days of each other. ## The forecast Commonwealth Bank (CBA) published a revised rate forecast on 21 September that separates it from every other major lender: one final Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cash rate rise in November, taking the rate to 4.60%. CBA explicitly flagged September as a live risk, making it the first major bank to name both a terminal rate and a near-term meeting as a genuine possibility.\[1\] A rate of 4.60% would be the most restrictive cash rate setting in Australia since 2011. Christmas consumer budgets are being written right now. Marketing and media buyers planning Q4 campaigns are looking at a household sector that, by November, may be carrying its heaviest interest bill in fifteen years. ## What money markets say Futures markets were pricing more than an 80% chance of a rate rise at the 29 September RBA meeting, with two full additional increases priced in by March 2027.\[2\] Three hikes from here would add roughly $180 a month to a $500,000 variable-rate mortgage. That is the size of a streaming subscription budget, a grocery shop, or a small discretionary line item, and it compounds across every indebted household in the country. The Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) was set to open down approximately 0.7% on 21 September despite Wall Street recording gains overnight. Rate-sensitive sectors, retailers, property trusts, consumer discretionary stocks, face the sharpest pressure when borrowing costs stay elevated for longer. ## Bullock's warning and the global backdrop RBA Governor Michele Bullock appeared before a parliamentary hearing on 16 September and left little room for ambiguity. "Developments since then suggest that, although growth in the Australian economy is slowing, some of these upside risks to inflation appear to be materialising," Bullock said.\[2\] Growth is softening and the RBA is still minded to tighten. Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser added a global dimension. Hauser said he had just returned from the US and that, in addition to upside inflation risks from the Middle East, the AI and tech boom had been remarkably strong.\[2\] The board is watching demand-side pressures on multiple fronts, not just locally. ## The international case for tightening Two institutions reinforced the RBA's hand on the same day Bullock testified. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised its target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00% on 16 September.\[3\] A higher US rate removes the political cover that often lets other central banks pause: capital flows toward the higher-yielding currency, putting downward pressure on the Australian dollar and upward pressure on imported inflation. The International Monetary Fund's (IMF) Article IV mission to Australia concluded that, with inflation risks tilted to the upside, "further monetary policy tightening in Australia is warranted."\[4\] The IMF cited solid domestic demand and elevated energy prices as the drivers, both consistent with what Bullock described in Canberra. ## What the numbers mean for Q4 Five events landed inside five days: the Fed's 25 basis-point rise, Bullock's parliamentary testimony, the IMF's tightening endorsement, the money-market repricing, and CBA's revised terminal rate call. Rates stay higher for longer in Australia, and the RBA meeting on 29 September is a live decision. __Key figures at a glance, Sources: CBA newsroom (21 Sep 2026), Federal Reserve (16 Sep 2026), IMF (16 Sep 2026)__ | Metric | Figure | Source | | ------------------------------------------- | ---------------------------- | --------------- | | CBA terminal RBA cash rate forecast | 4.60% (November 2026) | CBA newsroom | | Market probability of September RBA hike | More than 80% | CBA newsroom | | US federal funds target range (from 16 Sep) | 3.75% to 4.00% | Federal Reserve | | IMF recommendation on Australian rates | Further tightening warranted | IMF Article IV | | ASX expected open (21 Sep) | Down approximately 0.7% | CBA newsroom | For advertisers and agencies, the transmission runs like this: higher rates compress household disposable income, which tightens discretionary spending across the advertiser categories, travel, fashion, electronics, automotive, that carry the highest margins in Q4 media plans. The RBA's next decision is scheduled for 29 September 2026. This article contains analysis and commentary on market conditions. It does not constitute financial, investment, or professional advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult a qualified adviser before making financial decisions. SOURCES & CITATIONS 1. [CBA View: Higher rates, harder choices, CommBank Newsroom, 21 September 2026](https://www.commbank.com.au/articles/newsroom/2026/09/commbank-view-higher-rates-harder-choices.html?ref=promptthemarket.com) 2. [RBA inflation fears make rate rise likely, CommBank Newsroom, 16 September 2026](https://www.commbank.com.au/articles/newsroom/2026/09/rba-inflation-fears-rate-rise-likely.html?ref=promptthemarket.com) 3. [Federal Reserve press release: FOMC raises federal funds rate to 3.75-4.00%, 16 September 2026](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm) 4. [IMF Australia Staff Concluding Statement: 2026 Article IV Mission, 16 September 2026](https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2026/09/16/cs-09172026-australia-staff-concluding-statement-2026-aiv-mission?ref=promptthemarket.com) FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS What is CBA forecasting for the RBA cash rate? Commonwealth Bank forecasts one final rate rise in November 2026 that would lift the cash rate to 4.60%, its highest level since 2011\. The bank has also flagged the 29 September RBA meeting as a live risk for an earlier move. What are money markets pricing for the 29 September RBA meeting? Futures markets were pricing more than an 80% probability of a rate rise at the 29 September meeting, with two further full increases priced in by March 2027. Why did the IMF back further rate rises in Australia? The IMF's Article IV mission cited solid domestic demand and elevated energy prices as keeping inflation above the RBA's 2 to 3% target band, concluding that further monetary policy tightening was warranted. How does the US Federal Reserve's rate rise affect Australia? The Fed lifted its target range to 3.75 to 4.00% on 16 September 2026\. A higher US rate tends to attract capital flows toward the US dollar, which puts downward pressure on the Australian dollar and can push up the price of imports, adding to Australian inflation. ![James Dore](https://storage.ghost.io/c/e4/01/e4017178-c1da-4131-80aa-35f02cb5b999/content/images/2026/09/james-dore.jpg) [James Dore](https://www.promptthemarket.com/james-dore/) James Dore is Strategy Director at Bushnote, a leader in SEO and AEO in Australia. He writes on search, AI and the technology decisions shaping government and industry. Important This article contains general financial information only and does not constitute financial advice. It is not personal financial advice and does not take into account your individual circumstances, objectives or needs. Before making any financial decisions, you should consider whether the information is appropriate for your situation and seek professional financial advice if needed. Past performance is not indicative of future results.